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#==================================================================== -*-perl-*- |
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# |
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# DateTime::Event::Predict |
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# |
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# DESCRIPTION |
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# Predict new dates from a set of dates |
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# |
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# AUTHORS |
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# Brian Hann |
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# |
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#=============================================================================== |
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package DateTime::Event::Predict; |
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71435
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use 5.006; |
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use strict; |
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2
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2
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2249
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use DateTime; |
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0
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use Params::Validate qw(:all); |
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use Carp qw(carp croak confess); |
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use Scalar::Util; |
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use Data::Dumper; |
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use POSIX qw(ceil); |
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28
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use DateTime::Event::Predict::Profile qw(:buckets); |
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30
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our $VERSION = '0.01_03'; |
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#===============================================================================# |
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35
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sub new { |
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my $proto = shift; |
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38
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my %opts = validate(@_, { |
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dates => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, |
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profile => { type => SCALAR | OBJECT | HASHREF, optional => 1 }, |
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#stdev_limit => { type => SCALAR, default => 2 }, |
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}); |
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44
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my $class = ref( $proto ) || $proto; |
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my $self = { #Will need to allow for params passed to constructor |
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dates => [], |
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distinct_buckets => {}, |
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interval_buckets => {}, |
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total_epoch_interval => 0, |
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largest_epoch_interval => 0, |
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smallest_epoch_interval => 0, |
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mean_epoch_interval => 0, |
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54
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#Whether this data set has been trained or not |
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trained => 0, |
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}; |
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bless($self, $class); |
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59
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$opts{profile} = 'default' if ! $opts{profile}; |
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61
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$self->profile( $opts{profile} ); |
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63
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return $self; |
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} |
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66
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# Get or set list of dates |
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# ***NOTE: Should make this validate for 'can' on the DateTime methods we need and on 'isa' for DateTime |
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sub dates { |
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my $self = shift; |
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my ($dates) = @_; |
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72
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validate_pos(@_, { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }); |
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74
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if (! defined $dates) { |
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return wantarray ? @{$self->{dates}} : $self->{dates}; |
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} |
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elsif (defined $dates) { |
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foreach my $date (@$dates) { |
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$self->_trim_date( $date ); |
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$self->add_date($date); |
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} |
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} |
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84
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return 1; |
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} |
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87
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# Add a date to the list of dates |
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sub add_date { |
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my $self = shift; |
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my ($date) = @_; |
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92
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validate_pos(@_, { isa => 'DateTime' }); #***Or we could attempt to parse the date, or use can( epoch() ); |
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94
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$self->_trim_date( $date ); |
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96
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push(@{ $self->{dates} }, $date); |
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98
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return 1; |
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} |
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101
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#Get or set the profile for this predictor |
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sub profile { |
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my $self = shift; |
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my ($profile) = @_; # $profile can be a string specifying a profile name that is provided by default, or a profile object, or options to create a new profile |
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106
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validate_pos(@_, { type => SCALAR | OBJECT | HASHREF, optional => 1 }); |
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108
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# If no profile is provided, return the current profile |
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if (! defined $profile || ! $profile) { return $self->{profile}; } |
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111
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my $new_profile; |
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113
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# Profile is an actual DTP::Profile object |
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if (Scalar::Util::blessed($profile) && $profile->can('buckets')) { |
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$new_profile = $profile; |
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} |
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# Profile is a hashref of options to create a new DTP::Profile object with |
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elsif (ref($profile) eq 'HASH') { |
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$new_profile = DateTime::Event::Predict::Profile->new( |
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%$profile, |
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); |
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} |
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# Profile is the name of a profile alias |
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else { |
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$new_profile = DateTime::Event::Predict::Profile->new( profile => $profile ); |
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} |
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128
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# Add the distinct buckets |
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foreach my $bucket ( $new_profile->_distinct_buckets() ) { |
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$self->{distinct_buckets}->{ $bucket->name } = { |
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accessor => $bucket->accessor, |
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duration => $bucket->duration, |
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order => $bucket->order, |
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weight => $bucket->weight, |
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buckets => {}, |
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}; |
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} |
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139
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# Add the interval buckets |
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foreach my $bucket ( $new_profile->_interval_buckets() ) { |
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$self->{interval_buckets}->{ $bucket->name } = { |
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accessor => $bucket->accessor, |
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order => $bucket->order, |
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weight => $bucket->weight, |
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145
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buckets => {}, |
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}; |
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147
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} |
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148
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149
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$self->{profile} = $new_profile; |
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151
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return 1; |
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} |
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153
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154
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# Gather statistics about the dates |
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sub train { |
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156
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my $self = shift; |
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157
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158
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# Sort the dates chronologically |
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159
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my @dates = sort { $a->hires_epoch() <=> $b->hires_epoch() } @{ $self->{dates} }; #*** Need to convert this to DateTime->compare($dt1, $dt2) |
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160
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161
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# Last and first dates |
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$self->{last_date} = $dates[$#dates]; |
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163
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$self->{first_date} = $dates[0]; |
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164
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165
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# Clear out anything already in the the buckets |
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foreach my $bucket (values %{$self->{distinct_buckets}}, values %{$self->{interval_buckets}} ) { |
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$bucket->{buckets} = {}; |
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} |
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169
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170
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my $prev_date; |
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foreach my $index (0 .. $#{ $self->{dates} }) { |
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# The date to work on |
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my $date = $dates[ $index ]; |
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174
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175
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# Get which dates were before and after the date we're working on |
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my ($before, $after); |
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if ($index > 0) { $before = $dates[ $index - 1 ]; } |
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if ($index < $#{ $self->{dates} }) { $after = $dates[ $index + 1 ]; } |
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180
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# Increment the date-part buckets |
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while (my ($name, $dbucket) = each %{ $self->{distinct_buckets} }) { |
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182
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# Get the accessor method by using can() |
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183
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my $cref = $date->can( $dbucket->{accessor} ); |
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184
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croak "Can't call accessor '" . $dbucket->{accessor} . "' on " . ref($date) . " object" unless $cref; |
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185
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186
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# Increment the number of instances for the value given when we use this bucket's accessor on $date |
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$dbucket->{buckets}->{ &$cref($date) }++; |
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188
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} |
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190
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# If this is the first date we have nothing to diff, so we'll skip on to the next one |
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if (! $prev_date) { $prev_date = $date; next; } |
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192
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193
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# Get a DateTime::Duration object representing the diff between the dates |
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my $dur = $date->subtract_datetime( $prev_date ); |
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196
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# Increment the interval buckets |
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# Intervals: here we default to the largest interval that we can see. So, for instance, if |
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# there is a difference of months we will not increment anything smaller than that. |
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199
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while (my ($name, $bucket) = each %{ $self->{interval_buckets} }) { |
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200
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my $cref = $dur->can( $bucket->{accessor} ); |
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201
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croak "Can't call accessor '" . $bucket->{accessor} . "' on " . ref($dur) . " object" unless $cref; |
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202
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my $interval = &$cref($dur); |
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203
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$bucket->{buckets}->{ $interval }++; |
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204
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} |
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205
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206
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# Add the difference between dates in epoch seconds |
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207
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my $epoch_interval = $date->hires_epoch() - $prev_date->hires_epoch(); |
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208
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209
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### Epoch interval: $epoch_interval |
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210
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211
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$self->{total_epoch_interval} += $epoch_interval; |
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# Set the current date to this date |
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$prev_date = $date; |
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} |
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# Average interval between dates in epoch seconds |
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$self->{mean_epoch_interval} = $self->{total_epoch_interval} / (scalar @dates - 1); #Divide total interval by number of intervals |
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# Mark this object as being trained |
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$self->{trained}++; |
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} |
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sub predict { |
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my $self = shift; |
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my %opts = validate(@_, { |
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max_predictions => { type => SCALAR, optional => 1 }, # How many predictions to return |
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stdev_limit => { type => SCALAR, default => 2 }, # Number of standard deviations to search through, default to 2 |
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min_date => { isa => 'DateTime', optional => 1 }, # If set, make no prediction before 'min_date' |
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callbacks => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, # Arrayref of coderefs to call when making predictions |
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}); |
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# Force max predictions to one if we were called in scalar context |
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if (! defined $opts{'max_predictions'}) { |
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$opts{'max_predictions'} = 1 if ! wantarray; |
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} |
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# Train this set of dates if they're not already trained |
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$self->train if ! $self->_is_trained; |
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# Make a copy of the distinct and interval bucket hashes so we can mess with them |
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my %distinct_buckets = %{ $self->{distinct_buckets} }; |
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my %interval_buckets = %{ $self->{interval_buckets} }; |
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# Figure the mean, variance, and standard deviation for each bucket |
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foreach my $bucket (values %distinct_buckets, values %interval_buckets) { |
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my ($mean, $variance, $stdev) = $self->_bucket_statistics($bucket); |
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250
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$bucket->{mean} = $mean; |
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$bucket->{variance} = $variance; |
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$bucket->{stdev} = $stdev; |
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} |
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254
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255
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# Get the most recent of the provided dates by sorting them by their epoch seconds |
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256
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my $most_recent_date = (sort { $b->hires_epoch() <=> $a->hires_epoch() } @{ $self->{dates} })[0]; |
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257
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258
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# Make a starting search date that has been moved ahead by the average interval beteween dates (in epoch seconds) |
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my $duration = new DateTime::Duration( |
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260
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seconds => $self->{mean_epoch_interval}, # **Might need to round off hires second info here? |
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261
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); |
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262
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my $start_date = $most_recent_date + $duration; |
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263
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264
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# A hash of predictions, dates are keyed by their hires_epoch() value |
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265
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my %predictions = (); |
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266
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267
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# Start with using the distinct buckets to make predictions |
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268
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if (%distinct_buckets) { |
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269
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# Get a list of buckets after sorting the buckets from largest date part to smallest (i.e. year->month->day->hour ... microsecond, etc) |
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270
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my @distinct_bucket_keys = sort { $self->{distinct_buckets}->{ $b }->{order} <=> $self->{distinct_buckets}->{ $a }->{order} } keys %distinct_buckets; |
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271
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272
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# Get the first bucket name |
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273
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my $first_bucket_name = shift @distinct_bucket_keys; |
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274
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275
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# Start recursively descending down into the various date parts, searching in each one |
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276
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$self->_date_descend_distinct( |
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277
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%opts, |
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278
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279
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date => $start_date, |
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280
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most_recent_date => $most_recent_date, |
|
281
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bucket_name => $first_bucket_name, |
|
282
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distinct_buckets => \%distinct_buckets, |
|
283
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distinct_bucket_keys => \@distinct_bucket_keys, |
|
284
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predictions => \%predictions, |
|
285
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); |
|
286
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287
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# Now that we (hopefully) have some predictions, put them each through _interval_check to check |
|
288
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|
# the predictiosn against the interval bucket statistics |
|
289
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|
if (%interval_buckets) { |
|
290
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|
|
while (my ($hires, $prediction) = each %predictions) { |
|
291
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|
# Delete the date from the predictions hash if it's not good according to the interval statistics |
|
292
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|
|
if (! $self->_interval_check( $prediction )) { |
|
293
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|
|
delete $predictions{ $hires }; |
|
294
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} |
|
295
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} |
|
296
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} |
|
297
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} |
|
298
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|
|
# No distinct buckets, just interval buckets |
|
299
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|
|
elsif (%interval_buckets) { |
|
300
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|
|
# Get a list of buckets after sorting the buckets from largest interval to smallest (i.e. years->months->days->hours, etc) |
|
301
|
|
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|
|
|
|
my @interval_bucket_keys = sort { $self->{interval_buckets}->{ $b }->{order} <=> $self->{interval_buckets}->{ $a }->{order} } keys %interval_buckets; |
|
302
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|
303
|
|
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|
|
|
# Get the first bucket name |
|
304
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|
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|
|
my $first_bucket_name = shift @interval_bucket_keys; |
|
305
|
|
|
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|
|
|
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|
306
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Start recursively descending down into the date interval types, searching in each one |
|
307
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$self->_date_descend_interval( |
|
308
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
%opts, |
|
309
|
|
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|
|
|
|
|
310
|
|
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|
|
date => $start_date, |
|
311
|
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|
|
most_recent_date => $most_recent_date, |
|
312
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bucket_name => $first_bucket_name, |
|
313
|
|
|
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|
|
|
interval_buckets => \%interval_buckets, |
|
314
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
interval_bucket_keys => \@interval_bucket_keys, |
|
315
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
predictions => \%predictions, |
|
316
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
); |
|
317
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
318
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# WTF, no buckets. That's bad! |
|
319
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
else { |
|
320
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
croak("No buckets supplied!"); |
|
321
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
322
|
|
|
|
|
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|
|
323
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Sort the predictions by their total deviation |
|
324
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my @predictions = sort { $a->{_dtp_deviation} <=> $b->{_dtp_deviation} } values %predictions; |
|
325
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
326
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return wantarray ? @predictions : $predictions[0]; |
|
327
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
328
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
329
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Descend down into the distinct date parts, looking for predictions |
|
330
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _date_descend_distinct { |
|
331
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
332
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#my %opts = @_; |
|
333
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
334
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Validate the options |
|
335
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my %opts = validate(@_, { |
|
336
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The date to start searching in |
|
337
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
most_recent_date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The most recent date of the dates provided |
|
338
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bucket_name => { type => SCALAR }, # The bucket (date-part) to start searching in |
|
339
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
distinct_buckets => { type => HASHREF }, # A hashref of all buckets to use when looking for good predictions |
|
340
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
distinct_bucket_keys => { type => ARRAYREF }, # A list of bucket names that we shift out of to get the next bucket to use |
|
341
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
stdev_limit => { type => SCALAR }, # The limit of how many standard deviations to search through |
|
342
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
predictions => { type => HASHREF }, # A hashref of predictions we find |
|
343
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
max_predictions => { type => SCALAR, optional => 1 }, # The maxmimum number of predictions to return (prevents overly long searches) |
|
344
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
min_date => { isa => 'DateTime', optional => 1 }, # If set, make no prediction before 'min_date' |
|
345
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
callbacks => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, # A list of custom coderefs that are called on each possible prediction |
|
346
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
}); |
|
347
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
348
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Copy the options over into simple scalars so it's easier on my eyes |
|
349
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date = delete $opts{'date'}; # Delete these ones out as we'll be overwriting them below |
|
350
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $bucket_name = delete $opts{'bucket_name'}; |
|
351
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $distinct_buckets = $opts{'distinct_buckets'}; |
|
352
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $distinct_bucket_keys = $opts{'distinct_bucket_keys'}; |
|
353
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $stdev_limit = $opts{'stdev_limit'}; |
|
354
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $predictions = $opts{'predictions'}; |
|
355
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $max_predictions = $opts{'max_predictions'}; |
|
356
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $callbacks = $opts{'callbacks'}; |
|
357
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
358
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# We've reached our max number of predictions, return |
|
359
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1 if defined $max_predictions && (scalar keys %$predictions) >= $max_predictions; |
|
360
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
361
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the actual bucket hash for this bucket name |
|
362
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $bucket = $distinct_buckets->{ $bucket_name }; |
|
363
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
364
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# The search range is the standard deviation multiplied by the number of standard deviations to search through |
|
365
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $search_range = ceil( $bucket->{stdev} * $stdev_limit ); |
|
366
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
367
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#The next bucket to search down into |
|
368
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $next_bucket_name = ""; |
|
369
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (scalar @$distinct_bucket_keys > 0) { |
|
370
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$next_bucket_name = shift @$distinct_bucket_keys; |
|
371
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
372
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
373
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $search_inc ( 0 .. $search_range ) { |
|
374
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make an inverted search increment so we can search backwards |
|
375
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $neg_search_inc = $search_inc * -1; |
|
376
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
377
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Put forwards and backwards in the searches |
|
378
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my @searches = ($search_inc, $neg_search_inc); |
|
379
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
380
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make sure we only search on 0 once (i.e. 0 * -1 == 0) |
|
381
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@searches = (0) if $search_inc == 0; |
|
382
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
383
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $increment (@searches) { |
|
384
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# We've reached our max number of predictions, return |
|
385
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1 if defined $max_predictions && (scalar keys %$predictions) >= $max_predictions; |
|
386
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
387
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make a duration object using the accessor for this bucket |
|
388
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $duration_increment = new DateTime::Duration( $bucket->{duration} => $increment ); |
|
389
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
390
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the new date |
|
391
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $new_date = $date + $duration_increment; |
|
392
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
393
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Trim the date down to just the date parts we care about |
|
394
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$self->_trim_date( $new_date ); |
|
395
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
396
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Skip this date if it's before or on the most recent date |
|
397
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (DateTime->compare( $new_date, $opts{'most_recent_date'} ) <= 0) { # New date is before the most recent one, or is same as most recent one |
|
398
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
next; |
|
399
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
400
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
401
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Skip this date if the "min_date" option is set, and it's before or on that date |
|
402
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($opts{'min_date'} && DateTime->compare($new_date, $opts{'min_date'}) <= 0) { |
|
403
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
next; |
|
404
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
405
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
406
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If we have no more buckets to search into, determine if this date is a good prediction |
|
407
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (! $next_bucket_name) { |
|
408
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($self->_distinct_check( %opts, date => $new_date )) { |
|
409
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$predictions->{ $new_date->hires_epoch() } = $new_date; |
|
410
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
411
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
412
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#If we're not at the smallest bucket, keep searching! |
|
413
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
else { |
|
414
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$self->_date_descend_distinct( |
|
415
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
%opts, |
|
416
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => $new_date, |
|
417
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bucket_name => $next_bucket_name, |
|
418
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
); |
|
419
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
420
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
421
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
422
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
423
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1; |
|
424
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
425
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
426
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Descend down into the date intervals, looking for predictions |
|
427
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _date_descend_interval { |
|
428
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
429
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
430
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Validate the options |
|
431
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my %opts = validate(@_, { |
|
432
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The date to start searching in |
|
433
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
most_recent_date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The most recent date of the dates provided |
|
434
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bucket_name => { type => SCALAR }, # The bucket (date-part) to start searching in |
|
435
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
interval_buckets => { type => HASHREF }, # A hashref of all buckets to use when looking for good predictions |
|
436
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
interval_bucket_keys => { type => ARRAYREF }, # A list of bucket names that we shift out of to get the next bucket to use |
|
437
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
stdev_limit => { type => SCALAR }, # The limit of how many standard deviations to search through |
|
438
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
predictions => { type => HASHREF }, # A hashref of predictions we find |
|
439
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
max_predictions => { type => SCALAR, optional => 1 }, # The maxmimum number of predictions to return (prevents overly long searches) |
|
440
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
min_date => { isa => 'DateTime', optional => 1 }, # If set, make no prediction before 'min_date' |
|
441
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
callbacks => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, # A list of custom coderefs that are called on each possible prediction |
|
442
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
}); |
|
443
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
444
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Copy the options over into simple scalars so it's easier on my eyes |
|
445
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date = delete $opts{'date'}; # Delete these ones out as we'll be overwriting them below |
|
446
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $bucket_name = delete $opts{'bucket_name'}; |
|
447
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $interval_buckets = $opts{'interval_buckets'}; |
|
448
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $interval_bucket_keys = $opts{'interval_bucket_keys'}; |
|
449
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $stdev_limit = $opts{'stdev_limit'}; |
|
450
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $predictions = $opts{'predictions'}; |
|
451
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $max_predictions = $opts{'max_predictions'}; |
|
452
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $callbacks = $opts{'callbacks'}; |
|
453
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
454
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# We've reached our max number of predictions, return |
|
455
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1 if defined $max_predictions && (scalar keys %$predictions) >= $max_predictions; |
|
456
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
457
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the actual bucket hash for this bucket name |
|
458
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $bucket = $interval_buckets->{ $bucket_name }; |
|
459
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
460
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# The search range is the standard deviation multiplied by the number of standard deviations to search through |
|
461
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $search_range = ceil( $bucket->{stdev} * $stdev_limit ); |
|
462
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
463
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#The next bucket to search down into |
|
464
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $next_bucket_name = ""; |
|
465
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (scalar @$interval_bucket_keys > 0) { |
|
466
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$next_bucket_name = shift @$interval_bucket_keys; |
|
467
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
468
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
469
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $search_inc ( 0 .. $search_range ) { |
|
470
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make an inverted search increment so we can search backwards |
|
471
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $neg_search_inc = $search_inc * -1; |
|
472
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
473
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Put forwards and backwards in the searches |
|
474
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my @searches = ($search_inc, $neg_search_inc); |
|
475
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
476
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make sure we only search on 0 once (i.e. 0 * -1 == 0) |
|
477
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
@searches = (0) if $search_inc == 0; |
|
478
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
479
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $increment (@searches) { |
|
480
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# We've reached our max number of predictions, return |
|
481
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1 if defined $max_predictions && (scalar keys %$predictions) >= $max_predictions; |
|
482
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
483
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Make a duration object using the accessor for this bucket |
|
484
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $duration_increment = new DateTime::Duration( $bucket->{accessor} => $increment ); |
|
485
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
486
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the new date |
|
487
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $new_date = $date + $duration_increment; |
|
488
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
489
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Trim the date down to just the date parts we care about |
|
490
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$self->_trim_date( $new_date ); |
|
491
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
492
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Skip this date if it's before or on the most recent date |
|
493
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (DateTime->compare( $new_date, $opts{'most_recent_date'} ) <= 0) { # New date is before the most recent one, or is same as most recent one |
|
494
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
next; |
|
495
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
496
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
497
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Skip this date if the "min_date" option is set, and it's before or on that date |
|
498
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($opts{'min_date'} && DateTime->compare($new_date, $opts{'min_date'}) <= 0) { |
|
499
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
next; |
|
500
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
501
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
502
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If we have no more buckets to search into, determine if this date is a good prediction |
|
503
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (! $next_bucket_name) { |
|
504
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($self->_interval_check( %opts, date => $new_date )) { |
|
505
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$predictions->{ $new_date->hires_epoch() } = $new_date; |
|
506
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
507
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
508
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#If we're not at the smallest bucket, keep searching! |
|
509
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
else { |
|
510
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$self->_date_descend_interval( |
|
511
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
%opts, |
|
512
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => $new_date, |
|
513
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
bucket_name => $next_bucket_name, |
|
514
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
); |
|
515
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
516
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
517
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
518
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
519
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1; |
|
520
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
521
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
522
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Check to see if a given date is good according to the supplied distinct buckets by going through each bucket |
|
523
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# and comparing this date's deviation from that bucket's mean. If it is within the standard deviation for |
|
524
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# each bucket then consider it a good match. |
|
525
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _distinct_check { |
|
526
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
527
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
528
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Temporarily allow extra options |
|
529
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
validation_options( allow_extra => 1 ); |
|
530
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my %opts = validate(@_, { |
|
531
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The date to check |
|
532
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
distinct_buckets => { type => HASHREF }, # List of enabled buckets |
|
533
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
callbacks => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, # A list of custom coderefs that are called on each possible prediction |
|
534
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
}); |
|
535
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
validation_options( allow_extra => 0 ); |
|
536
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
537
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date = $opts{'date'}; |
|
538
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $distinct_buckets = $opts{'distinct_buckets'}; |
|
539
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $callbacks = $opts{'callbacks'}; |
|
540
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
541
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $good = 1; |
|
542
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date_deviation = 0; |
|
543
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $bucket (values %$distinct_buckets) { |
|
544
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the value for this bucket's access for the $new_date |
|
545
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $cref = $date->can( $bucket->{accessor} ); |
|
546
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $datepart_val = &$cref($date); |
|
547
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
548
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If the deviation of this datepart from the mean is within the standard deviation, |
|
549
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# this date ain't good. |
|
550
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
551
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $deviation = abs($datepart_val - $bucket->{mean}); |
|
552
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$date_deviation += $deviation; |
|
553
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
554
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($deviation > $bucket->{stdev} ) { |
|
555
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$good = 0; |
|
556
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
last; |
|
557
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
558
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
559
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
560
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# All the dateparts were within their standard deviations, check for callbacks and push this date into the set of predictions |
|
561
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($good == 1) { |
|
562
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Stick the date's total deviation into the object so it can be used for sorting in predict() |
|
563
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$date->{_dtp_deviation} += $date_deviation; |
|
564
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
565
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Run each hook we were passed |
|
566
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $callback (@$callbacks) { |
|
567
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If any hook returns false, this date is a no-go and we can stop processing it |
|
568
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (! &$callback($date)) { |
|
569
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$good = 0; |
|
570
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
last; |
|
571
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
572
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
573
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
574
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If the date is still considered good, return true |
|
575
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($good == 1) { |
|
576
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1; |
|
577
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
578
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Otherwise return false |
|
579
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
else { |
|
580
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 0; |
|
581
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
582
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
583
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
584
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
585
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Check to see if a given date is good according to the supplied interval buckets by going through each bucket |
|
586
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# and comparing this date's deviation from that bucket's mean. If it is within the standard deviation for |
|
587
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# each bucket then consider it a good match. |
|
588
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _interval_check { |
|
589
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
590
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
591
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Temporarily allow extra options |
|
592
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
validation_options( allow_extra => 1 ); |
|
593
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my %opts = validate(@_, { |
|
594
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The date prediction to check |
|
595
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
most_recent_date => { isa => 'DateTime' }, # The most recent date of the dates provided |
|
596
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
interval_buckets => { type => HASHREF }, # List of enabled interval buckets |
|
597
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
callbacks => { type => ARRAYREF, optional => 1 }, # A list of custom coderefs that are called on each possible prediction |
|
598
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
}); |
|
599
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
validation_options( allow_extra => 0 ); |
|
600
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
601
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date = $opts{'date'}; |
|
602
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $most_recent_date = $opts{'most_recent_date'}; |
|
603
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $interval_buckets = $opts{'interval_buckets'}; |
|
604
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $callbacks = $opts{'callbacks'}; |
|
605
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
606
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Flag specifying whether the predicted date is "good" (within the standard deviation) or not |
|
607
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $good = 1; |
|
608
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
609
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Total deviation of the predicted date from each of the bucket standard deviations |
|
610
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $date_deviation = 0; |
|
611
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
612
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get a duration object for the span between the most recent date supplied and the predicted date |
|
613
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $dur = $date->subtract_datetime( $most_recent_date ); |
|
614
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
615
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $bucket (values %$interval_buckets) { |
|
616
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $cref = $dur->can( $bucket->{accessor} ); |
|
617
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
croak "Can't call accessor '" . $bucket->{accessor} . "' on " . ref($dur) . " object" unless $cref; |
|
618
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $interval = &$cref($dur); |
|
619
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
620
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $deviation = abs($interval - $bucket->{mean}); |
|
621
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$date_deviation += $deviation; |
|
622
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
623
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($deviation > $bucket->{stdev} ) { |
|
624
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$good = 0; |
|
625
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
last; |
|
626
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
627
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
628
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
629
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# All the dateparts were within their standard deviations, check for callbacks and push this date into the set of predictions |
|
630
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($good == 1) { |
|
631
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Stick the date's total deviation into the object so it can be used for sorting in predict() |
|
632
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$date->{_dtp_deviation} += $date_deviation; |
|
633
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
634
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Run each hook we were passed |
|
635
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $callback (@$callbacks) { |
|
636
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If any hook returns false, this date is a no-go and we can stop processing it |
|
637
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if (! &$callback($date)) { |
|
638
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$good = 0; |
|
639
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
last; |
|
640
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
641
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
642
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
643
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# If the date is still considered good, return true |
|
644
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
if ($good == 1) { |
|
645
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 1; |
|
646
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
647
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Otherwise return false |
|
648
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
else { |
|
649
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return 0; |
|
650
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
651
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
652
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
653
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
654
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the mean, variance, and standard deviation for a bucket |
|
655
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _bucket_statistics { |
|
656
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
657
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $bucket = shift; |
|
658
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
659
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $total = 0; |
|
660
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $count = 0; |
|
661
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
while (my ($value, $occurances) = each %{ $bucket->{buckets} }) { |
|
662
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Gotta loop for each time the value has been found, incrementing the total by the value |
|
663
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
for (1 .. $occurances) { |
|
664
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$total += $value; |
|
665
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$count++; |
|
666
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
667
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
668
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
669
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $mean = $total / $count; |
|
670
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
671
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the variance |
|
672
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $total_variance = 0; |
|
673
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
while (my ($value, $occurances) = each %{ $bucket->{buckets} }) { |
|
674
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Gotta loop for each time the value has been found |
|
675
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $this_variance = ($value - $mean) ** 2; |
|
676
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
677
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$total_variance += $this_variance * $occurances; |
|
678
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
679
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
680
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $variance = $total_variance / $count; |
|
681
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $stdev = sqrt($variance); |
|
682
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
683
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return ($mean, $variance, $stdev); |
|
684
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
685
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
686
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Whether this instance has been trained by train() or not |
|
687
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _is_trained { |
|
688
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
689
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
690
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return ($self->{trained} > 0) ? 1 : 0; |
|
691
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
692
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
693
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Utility method to print out the dates added to this instance |
|
694
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _print_dates { |
|
695
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
696
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
697
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $date (sort { $a->hires_epoch() <=> $b->hires_epoch() } @{ $self->{dates} }) { |
|
698
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
print $date->mdy('/') . ' ' . $date->hms . "\n"; |
|
699
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
700
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
701
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
702
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Trim the date parts that are smaller than the smallest one we care about. If we only care about |
|
703
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# the year, month, and day, and during the initial search create an offset date that has an hour |
|
704
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# or minute that is off from the most recent given date, then when we do a comparison to see if |
|
705
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# we're predicting a date we've already been given it's possible that we could have that same |
|
706
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# date, just with the hour and second set forward a bit. |
|
707
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _trim_dates { |
|
708
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $self = shift; |
|
709
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my (@dates) = @_; |
|
710
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
711
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Get the smallest bucket we have turned on |
|
712
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my @buckets = (sort { $a->order <=> $b->order } grep { $_->on && $_->trimmable } $self->profile->buckets)[0]; |
|
713
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
my $smallest_bucket = $buckets[0]; |
|
714
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
715
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
return if ! defined $smallest_bucket || ! $smallest_bucket || ! @buckets; |
|
716
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
717
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $date (@dates) { |
|
718
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
confess "Can't trim a non-DateTime value" unless $date->isa( 'DateTime' ); |
|
719
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
720
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
#foreach my $bucket (grep { $_->trimmable && ($_->order < $smallest_bucket->order) } values %DateTime::Event::Predict::Profile::BUCKETS) { |
|
721
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
foreach my $bucket (grep { $_->order < $smallest_bucket->order } values %DISTINCT_BUCKETS) { |
|
722
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Clone the date so we don't modify anything we shouldn't |
|
723
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
$date->clone->truncate( to => $smallest_bucket->accessor ); |
|
724
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
725
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
726
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
} |
|
727
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
728
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
# Useless syntactic sugar |
|
729
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
sub _trim_date { return &_trim_dates(@_); } |
|
730
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
731
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1; # End of DateTime::Event::Predict |
|
732
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
733
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
__END__ |